1 Overview

This document contains additional figures exploring the characteristics of the spawner-recruitment relationships for 318 Pacific salmon stocks located throughout the Northeast Pacific region.

1.1 Map of timeseries

1.2 States/Provinces

Number of spawner-recruit time-series by state/province jurisdiction: Washington (WA), British Columbia (BC), Alaska (AK).

1.3 Ocean basins/Large Marine Ecosystems

Number of spawner-recruit time-series by Large Marine Ecosystem: West Coast (WC), Southeast Alaska/North Coast British Columbia (SEAK), Gulf of Alaska (GOA), and Bering Sea (BS).

1.4 Series length

Distribution of spawner-recruit time-series lengths (number of years of brood cohort observations) broken down by species.

2 Stock parameters - static

For each species, we fit a multi-stock Ricker spawner-recruit model with static parameters (model 1 in match text). Productivity (\(alpha\)) is hierarchically structured based on geography (sub-regions nested within large marine ecosystems). All other parameters are sampled independently for each stock.

2.1 Productivity

Productivity, log(\(\alpha\)), estimated at different hierarchical levels.

2.1.1 Global (all stocks)

Mean productivity, among all stocks, for each species.

2.1.2 Large Marine Ecosystem

Posterior estimates of mean productivity for stocks each Large Marine Ecosystem (N = 4 total). Vertical lines indicate medians for each region.

2.1.3 Sub-Region

Mean productivity estimated for each sub-region, representing either large watersheds or coastal regions, for each species. Vertical lines indicate the posterior median value and numbers in parenthesis indicate stock sample size for that species in the sub-region.

2.1.3.1 Chinook

2.1.3.2 Sockeye

2.1.3.3 Chum

2.1.3.4 Coho

2.1.3.5 Pink (even)

2.1.3.6 Pink (odd)

2.2 Smax (Capacity)

Posterior distribution of \(Smax\), spawners where total recruits is maximized (1/\(\beta\)), for all stocks of each species. Darker bars indicate the distribution of median estimates among all stocks.

2.3 Smsy

Posterior distribution of \(Smsy\), spawners where maximum sustainable yield would be achieved, for all stocks of each species. Darker bars indicate the distribution of median estimates among all stocks.

2.4 Sigma

Posterior distribution of \(\sigma\), the residual deviance, for all stocks of each species. Darker bars indicate the distribution of median estimates among all stocks and black vertical lines represent the median of the entire posterior.

2.5 Rho (autocorrelation)

Posterior distribution of \(\rho\), the 1-year residual autocorrelation, for all stocks of each species. Darker bars indicate the distribution of median estimates among all stocks and black vertical lines represent the median of the entire posterior.

2.6 Parameter correlations - productivity and capacity

This section examines the correlation between estimates of stock productivity (log(\(\alpha\))) and stock capacity (\(Smax\)), which can be examined both across stocks, which tests for potential scaling relationships (ie. are larger stocks more or less productive), and within the posterior sample for each stock (ie. what is the statistical correlation between estimating the two parameters of the Ricker relationship).

2.6.1 Among stock correlation

\(r\) is the median correlation among stocks in each parameter.

2.6.2 Within stock correlation

Distribution of the median correlation between each parameter in the posterior distribution of each stock.

3 Productivity trajectories

Trajectories of mean intrinsic productivity change throughout the time span fit with multi-stock models (model 2 in the main text).

3.1 Global (all stocks)

Geometric mean productivity, \(\alpha\), (with shading indicating 90% credible intervals) for all stocks in each species.

3.2 Large Marine Ecosystem

Productivity trajectories averaged over stocks within each of the four designated Large Marine Ecosystems

3.2.1 Chinook

3.2.2 Sockeye

3.2.3 Chum

3.2.4 Coho

3.2.5 Pink (even)

3.2.6 Pink (odd)

4 Recent productivity change

In this section, we estimate the net mean productivity change from the last 5 brood cohort relative to the long-term average productivity (estimated in model 1). Light gray whiskers indicate the 90% credible intervals for each stocks estimates.